Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Forward Madison Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Chattanooga Red Wolves
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Forward Madison
Kick-off 23:00 Stadium CHI Memorial Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Chattanooga Red Wolves opened at 0 against Forward Madison in the USL League One. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Chattanooga Red Wolves -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.38 / 1.22
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Chattanooga Red Wolves 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Chattanooga Red Wolves than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Chattanooga Red Wolves 0
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+4.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
0
22:59
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.85 / 1.81 0 1.77 / 1.89 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.92 / 1.87 0 1.81 / 1.99 0 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 0
1xBet 0 1.85 / 1.81 0 1.77 / 1.89 0 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.92 / 1.89 -0.25 1.84 / 1.96 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.80 9.90
-2.00 8.10 9.00
-1.75 5.55 6.14
-1.50 4.35 4.80
-1.25 3.98 4.40
-1.00 3.58 4.00
-0.75 2.70 2.92
-0.25 2.02 2.15
0 1.77 1.89
+0.25 1.56 1.67
+0.75 1.31 1.36
+1.00 1.17 1.21
+1.25 1.14 1.17
+1.50 1.12 1.14
+1.75 1.06 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 5.90
-1.50 4.50 4.50
-1.25 4.15 4.15
-1.00 3.80 3.80
-0.75 3.00 3.00
-0.50 2.50 2.50
-0.25 2.20 2.20
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.65 1.65
+0.50 1.50 1.50
+0.75 1.38 1.38
+1.00 1.25 1.25
+1.25 1.22 1.22
+1.50 1.19 1.19
+1.75 1.13 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.06 2.18
-0.25 1.84 1.96
0 1.62 1.72
+0.25 1.45 1.52
+0.50 1.35 1.40

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.80 8.40
-2.00 8.10 9.00
-1.75 5.55 6.15
-1.50 4.35 4.80
-1.25 3.98 4.40
-1.00 3.58 4.00
-0.75 2.70 2.92
-0.25 2.00 2.15
0 1.77 1.89
+0.25 1.56 1.65
+0.75 1.31 1.36
+1.00 1.17 1.21
+1.25 1.14 1.17
+1.50 1.12 1.14
+1.75 1.06 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 3.01
-0.50 2.29 2.51
-0.25 2.06 2.26
0 1.81 1.99
+0.25 1.61 1.72
+0.50 1.48 1.57
+0.75 1.35 1.42
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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