Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sporting JAX
Oct 10, 2026 - 17:00 INT
0 1.36
1 1.24
Birmingham Legion
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sporting JAX opened at -0.25 against Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Sporting JAX -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Birmingham Legion than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sporting JAX -0.25
@ 2.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.19
Price Advantage
+26.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.70 / 1.67 -0.25 2.56 / 1.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.94 / 1.72 -0.25 2.76 / 1.83 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.72 -0.25 2.75 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.73 / 1.67 -0.25 2.58 / 1.73 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.62 / 1.75 -0.25 2.62 / 1.75 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
xG 1.36 / 1.24 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.76
Sporting JAX @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Sporting JAX @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.76 vs 2.19
Market price is 26.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 5.60
-1.75 7.30 4.10
-1.50 5.65 3.28
-1.25 5.30 2.97
-1.00 4.90 2.69
-0.75 3.50 2.23
-0.25 2.58 1.73
0 2.27 1.53
+0.25 1.90 1.41
+0.75 1.55 1.22
+1.00 1.36 1.11
+1.25 1.30 1.09
+1.50 1.25 1.08
+1.75 1.16 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 3.45
-1.25 5.50 3.10
-1.00 5.25 2.75
-0.75 3.70 2.30
-0.50 3.10 2.05
-0.25 2.75 1.80
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 2.00 1.42
+0.50 1.75 1.35
+0.75 1.60 1.26
+1.00 1.42 1.16
+1.25 1.35 1.15
+1.50 1.30 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.62 1.75
0 2.29 1.53
+0.25 1.93 1.41

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.30 4.10
-1.50 5.65 3.28
-1.25 5.30 2.97
-1.00 4.90 2.69
-0.75 3.50 2.21
-0.25 2.56 1.73
0 2.27 1.53
+0.25 1.90 1.40
+0.75 1.53 1.22
+1.00 1.36 1.11
+1.25 1.30 1.09
+1.50 1.25 1.08
+1.75 1.16 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.77 2.35
-0.50 3.08 2.05
-0.25 2.76 1.83
0 2.42 1.59
+0.25 2.03 1.47
+0.50 1.80 1.38
+0.75 1.61 1.28
Primary Bets
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