Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Oct 10, 2026 - 23:00
1.29 1.31
Hartford Athletic
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pittsburgh Riverhounds opened at -0.25 against Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pittsburgh Riverhounds -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Hartford Athletic than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Hartford Athletic +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+74.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 2.88 -0.25 1.73 / 2.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.88 -0.25 1.74 / 2.88 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.95 -0.25 1.72 / 2.95 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.73
Pittsburgh Riverhounds @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Pittsburgh Riverhounds @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.73 vs 2.39
Market price is 27.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.29 9.10
-1.50 4.05 8.10
-1.25 3.58 7.50
-1.00 3.14 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.39
-0.25 1.74 2.88
0 1.46 2.44
+0.25 1.32 1.92
+0.75 1.14 1.46
+1.00 1.04 1.27
+1.25 1.03 1.21
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.10 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.40
-0.50 2.05 3.45
-0.25 1.78 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.50 1.30 1.75
+0.75 1.20 1.55
+1.00 1.10 1.35

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.72 2.95
+0.25 1.36 2.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.30 9.10
-1.50 4.05 8.10
-1.25 3.58 7.50
-1.00 3.14 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.40
-0.25 1.73 2.88
0 1.46 2.44
+0.25 1.32 1.90
+0.75 1.14 1.46
+1.00 1.04 1.27
+1.25 1.03 1.21
+1.50 1.02 1.16
Primary Bets
More