Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Phoenix Rising
Oct 11, 2026 - 02:00
1.45 1.15
Las Vegas Lights
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Phoenix Rising opened at -0.25 against Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
Phoenix Rising -0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Phoenix Rising -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Phoenix Rising than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Las Vegas Lights +0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.02
Price Advantage
+56.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.56 / 3.08 -0.25 1.56 / 3.05 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.64 / 3.16 -0.25 1.62 / 3.17 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.56 / 3.08 -0.25 1.56 / 3.05 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.27
xG 1.45 / 1.15 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.62
Phoenix Rising @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.98
Phoenix Rising @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.62 vs 1.98
Market price is 18.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.04 7.40
-1.25 2.73 6.99
-1.00 2.39 6.55
-0.75 1.98 4.39
-0.25 1.56 3.05
0 1.36 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.15
+0.75 1.14 1.67
+1.00 1.05 1.48
+1.25 1.04 1.37
+1.50 1.03 1.29

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.04 7.40
-1.25 2.70 7.00
-1.00 2.39 6.55
-0.75 1.98 4.40
-0.25 1.56 3.05
0 1.36 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.15
+0.75 1.14 1.67
+1.00 1.05 1.48
+1.25 1.04 1.36
+1.50 1.03 1.29

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.83 3.53
-0.25 1.62 3.17
0 1.42 2.80
+0.25 1.34 2.26
+0.50 1.28 1.97
Primary Bets
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