Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Indy Eleven
Oct 10, 2026 - 23:00
1.31 1.29
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Indy Eleven opened at -0.25 against Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Indy Eleven -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Indy Eleven -0.25
@ 3.11
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.33
Price Advantage
+33.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.70 / 1.71 -0.25 2.88 / 1.64 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.85 / 1.81 -0.25 3.11 / 1.71 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.85 -0.25 3.00 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.73 / 1.71 -0.25 2.90 / 1.64 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.67 / 1.80 -0.25 2.67 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.11
Indy Eleven @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Indy Eleven @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.11 vs 2.33
Market price is 33.5% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.29
-1.50 7.20 3.34
-1.25 6.75 3.04
-1.00 6.30 2.66
-0.75 4.20 2.13
-0.25 2.90 1.64
0 2.56 1.42
+0.25 2.02 1.33
+0.75 1.57 1.15
+1.00 1.37 1.06
+1.25 1.29 1.04
+1.50 1.24 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.45
-1.25 7.00 3.10
-1.00 6.60 2.68
-0.75 4.25 2.20
-0.50 3.30 1.95
-0.25 3.00 1.70
0 2.60 1.48
+0.25 2.10 1.38
+0.50 1.85 1.32
+0.75 1.65 1.21
+1.00 1.45 1.11
+1.25 1.35 1.10
+1.50 1.30 1.12

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.67 1.80
+0.25 1.95 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.80 4.30
-1.50 7.20 3.34
-1.25 6.75 3.04
-1.00 6.30 2.66
-0.75 4.20 2.13
-0.25 2.88 1.64
0 2.56 1.42
+0.25 2.02 1.32
+0.75 1.57 1.15
+1.00 1.37 1.06
+1.25 1.29 1.04
+1.50 1.24 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.15 2.25
-0.50 3.53 1.97
-0.25 3.11 1.71
0 2.69 1.47
+0.25 2.14 1.36
+0.50 1.85 1.29
+0.75 1.64 1.22
Primary Bets
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