Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lexington
Oct 03, 2026 - 23:00
1.31 1.29
El Paso Locomotive
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lexington opened at -0.25 against El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Lexington -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward El Paso Locomotive than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
El Paso Locomotive +0.25
@ 3.13
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+78.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.66 -0.25 1.62 / 2.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.79 / 2.81 -0.25 1.65 / 3.13 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.66 -0.25 1.64 / 2.88 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.72 -0.25 1.78 / 2.75 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.65
Lexington @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Lexington @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.65 vs 2.33
Market price is 29.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.14 8.60
-1.50 3.28 7.10
-1.25 2.92 6.69
-1.00 2.56 6.25
-0.75 2.08 4.15
-0.25 1.64 2.88
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.07
+0.75 1.16 1.60
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.04 1.31
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 7.00
-1.25 3.10 6.40
-1.00 2.75 6.00
-0.75 2.25 4.10
-0.50 1.85 3.30
-0.25 1.75 2.85
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.40 2.05
+0.50 1.32 1.95
+0.75 1.23 1.62
+1.00 1.12 1.42
+1.25 1.12 1.35
+1.50 1.10 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.78 2.75
+0.25 1.42 1.98

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.15 8.60
-1.50 3.28 7.10
-1.25 2.92 6.70
-1.00 2.56 6.25
-0.75 2.08 4.15
-0.25 1.62 2.88
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.05
+0.75 1.16 1.60
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.05 1.31
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.12 3.89
-0.50 1.86 3.50
-0.25 1.65 3.13
0 1.43 2.76
+0.25 1.34 2.23
+0.50 1.29 1.94
+0.75 1.24 1.71
Primary Bets
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