Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Las Vegas Lights
Oct 04, 2026 - 02:30
1.22 1.38
San Antonio
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Las Vegas Lights opened at -0.25 against San Antonio in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Las Vegas Lights +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Las Vegas Lights -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward San Antonio than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
San Antonio +0.25
@ 2.50
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+54.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.38 -0.25 1.91 / 2.38 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.38 -0.25 1.93 / 2.38 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.45 -0.25 1.95 / 2.45 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Las Vegas Lights @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Las Vegas Lights @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.62
Market price is 27.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.10 8.50
-1.50 4.60 6.20
-1.25 4.14 5.69
-1.00 3.58 5.15
-0.75 2.66 3.42
-0.25 1.93 2.38
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.46 1.74
+0.75 1.23 1.37
+1.00 1.10 1.21
+1.25 1.08 1.16
+1.50 1.06 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.25
-1.25 4.00 5.75
-1.00 3.55 5.25
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 2.85
-0.25 2.00 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.80
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.16 1.27
+1.25 1.14 1.23
+1.50 1.12 1.20

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.95 2.45
+0.25 1.50 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.10 8.50
-1.50 4.60 6.20
-1.25 4.15 5.70
-1.00 3.58 5.15
-0.75 2.66 3.42
-0.25 1.91 2.38
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.46 1.72
+0.75 1.23 1.37
+1.00 1.10 1.21
+1.25 1.08 1.16
+1.50 1.06 1.13
Primary Bets
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