FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Tulsa
Oct 04, 2026 - 00:00
1.37 1.23
Sacramento Republic
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Tulsa opened at 0 against Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward FC Tulsa from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
FC Tulsa -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Sacramento Republic than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sacramento Republic +0.25
@ 2.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+12.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.99 / 1.69 -0.25 2.35 / 1.99 — -0.25
Bet365 0 2.05 / 1.75 0 2.05 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet 0 1.99 / 1.69 -0.25 2.37 / 1.99 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.32 / 2.07 -0.25 2.42 / 2.05 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
xG 1.37 / 1.23 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.35
FC Tulsa @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.16
FC Tulsa @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.35 vs 2.16
Market price is 8.8% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 7.38
-1.50 6.60 5.20
-1.25 6.04 4.65
-1.00 5.45 4.10
-0.75 3.50 2.83
-0.25 2.37 1.99
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.66 1.48
+0.75 1.33 1.22
+1.00 1.16 1.08
+1.25 1.12 1.06
+1.50 1.10 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 5.50
-1.25 6.00 4.65
-1.00 5.50 4.15
-0.75 3.55 3.00
-0.50 2.85 2.42
-0.25 2.42 2.10
0 2.05 1.75
+0.25 1.70 1.52
+0.50 1.52 1.40
+0.75 1.38 1.27
+1.00 1.22 1.15
+1.25 1.18 1.12
+1.50 1.15 1.11

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.80 2.37
-0.25 2.42 2.05
+0.25 1.72 1.52
+0.50 1.55 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.10 7.00
-1.50 6.60 5.20
-1.25 6.05 4.65
-1.00 5.45 4.10
-0.75 3.50 2.83
-0.25 2.35 1.99
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.66 1.47
+0.75 1.33 1.22
+1.00 1.16 1.08
+1.25 1.12 1.06
+1.50 1.10 1.05
Primary Bets
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