Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rhode Island
Sep 30, 2026 - 23:30
1.39 1.21
Indy Eleven
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rhode Island opened at -0.25 against Indy Eleven in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Rhode Island -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Rhode Island -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Indy Eleven than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Indy Eleven +0.25
@ 3.14
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+65.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.57 / 3.05 -0.25 1.53 / 3.14 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.68 / 3.03 -0.25 1.68 / 3.11 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.57 / 3.05 -0.25 1.53 / 3.14 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
xG 1.39 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.68
Rhode Island @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
Rhode Island @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.68 vs 2.11
Market price is 20.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.05 8.40
-1.25 2.73 7.85
-1.00 2.39 7.30
-0.75 1.95 4.70
-0.25 1.53 3.14
0 1.34 2.78
+0.25 1.27 2.21
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.03 1.48
+1.25 1.02 1.37

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.50 6.80
-0.75 2.10 4.50
-0.50 1.90 3.55
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.19 1.70
+1.00 1.10 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.05 8.40
-1.25 2.70 7.90
-1.00 2.39 7.30
-0.75 1.95 4.70
-0.25 1.53 3.14
0 1.34 2.78
+0.25 1.27 2.21
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.03 1.48
+1.25 1.02 1.36

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.90 3.49
-0.25 1.68 3.11
0 1.46 2.74
+0.25 1.36 2.22
+0.50 1.30 1.93
Primary Bets
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