Gimnasia M. vs Platense Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gimnasia M.
Oct 23, 2026 - 21:30
1.03 1.02
Platense
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 4 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gimnasia M. opened at -0.25 against Platense in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Gimnasia M. -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.24
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.24 AH points more toward Platense than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Platense +0.25
@ 2.50
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.24
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+47.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.99 / 2.42 -0.25 1.99 / 2.42 — 0
Bet365 0 1.72 / 2.08 0 1.72 / 2.08 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.11 0 1.73 / 2.11 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.02 / 2.48 -0.25 2.02 / 2.48 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.01
xG 1.03 / 1.02 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.99
Gimnasia M. @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Gimnasia M. @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.99 vs 2.42
Market price is 17.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 8.50
-1.50 5.00 6.45
-1.25 4.54 5.95
-1.00 4.05 5.50
-0.75 2.84 3.60
-0.25 2.08 2.42
0 1.73 2.11
+0.25 1.46 1.75
+0.75 1.21 1.33
+1.00 1.08 1.16
+1.25 1.07 1.13
+1.50 1.05 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 7.00
-1.25 5.00 6.40
-1.00 4.40 5.90
-0.75 3.10 3.80
-0.50 2.42 3.00
-0.25 2.10 2.50
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.50 1.70
+0.50 1.38 1.52
+0.75 1.25 1.35
+1.00 1.13 1.20
+1.25 1.12 1.17
+1.50 1.10 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.36 2.91
-0.25 2.02 2.48
0 1.66 2.05
+0.25 1.45 1.68
+0.50 1.34 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.55 8.50
-1.50 5.00 6.45
-1.25 4.55 5.95
-1.00 4.05 5.50
-0.75 2.84 3.60
-0.25 1.99 2.42
0 1.69 2.07
+0.25 1.46 1.68
+0.75 1.21 1.33
+1.00 1.08 1.16
+1.25 1.07 1.13
+1.50 1.05 1.10
Primary Bets
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