Platense vs Lanus Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Platense
Oct 18, 2026 - 20:00
1.09 1.34
Lanus
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Platense opened at -0.25 against Lanus in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.22
Platense +0.22

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Platense -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.47
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.47 AH points more toward Lanus than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lanus +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.47
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.54
Price Advantage
+29.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.61 / 1.93 -0.25 2.61 / 1.93 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 2.00 -0.25 2.75 / 2.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.74 / 1.93 -0.25 2.74 / 1.93 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.70 / 1.93 -0.25 2.70 / 1.93 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.22
xG 1.09 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.61
Platense @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.84
Platense @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.61 vs 2.84
Market price is 8.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.40 5.05
-1.25 6.85 4.55
-1.00 6.35 4.00
-0.75 3.94 2.74
-0.25 2.74 1.93
0 2.24 1.65
+0.25 1.73 1.45
+0.75 1.35 1.18
+1.00 1.17 1.06
+1.25 1.13 1.04
+1.50 1.10 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 7.00 4.15
-0.75 4.25 2.85
-0.50 3.30 2.35
-0.25 2.75 2.00
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.80 1.42
+0.50 1.58 1.32
+0.75 1.40 1.21
+1.00 1.22 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.20 2.29
-0.25 2.70 1.93
0 2.21 1.57
+0.25 1.74 1.39
+0.50 1.53 1.29

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.40 5.05
-1.25 6.85 4.55
-1.00 6.35 4.00
-0.75 3.94 2.75
-0.25 2.61 1.93
0 2.20 1.62
+0.25 1.73 1.40
+0.75 1.35 1.18
+1.00 1.17 1.06
+1.25 1.13 1.04
+1.50 1.10 1.03
Primary Bets
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