San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

San Lorenzo
Oct 11, 2026 - 17:45
0.58 0.95
Deportivo Riestra
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

San Lorenzo opened at -0.25 against Deportivo Riestra in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.30
San Lorenzo +0.30

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
San Lorenzo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.55
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.55 AH points more toward Deportivo Riestra than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Deportivo Riestra +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.55
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.36
Price Advantage
+135.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.93 -0.25 1.96 / 2.61 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.10 / 2.88 0 1.68 / 2.24 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 3.10 -0.25 2.08 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.93 -0.25 2.04 / 2.61 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 3.20 -0.25 1.90 / 3.20 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 3.05 -0.25 1.99 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.30
xG 0.58 / 0.95 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
San Lorenzo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.80
San Lorenzo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 3.80
Market price is 48.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.30 7.80
-1.25 4.81 7.29
-1.00 4.30 6.65
-0.75 2.88 4.09
-0.25 2.04 2.61
0 1.66 2.22
+0.25 1.40 1.77
+0.75 1.16 1.32
+1.00 1.05 1.15
+1.25 1.03 1.12
+1.50 1.02 1.09

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.50 7.00
-0.75 3.10 4.15
-0.50 2.42 3.30
-0.25 2.08 2.68
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.45 1.72
+0.50 1.32 1.52
+0.75 1.22 1.35
+1.00 1.10 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.36 3.10
-0.25 1.99 2.62
0 1.61 2.13
+0.25 1.41 1.70
+0.50 1.30 1.50

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.47 3.30
-0.25 1.90 3.20
+0.25 1.38 1.95
+0.50 1.36 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.30 7.80
-1.25 4.80 7.30
-1.00 4.30 6.65
-0.75 2.88 4.10
-0.25 1.96 2.61
0 1.63 2.17
+0.25 1.40 1.70
+0.75 1.16 1.32
+1.00 1.05 1.15
+1.25 1.03 1.11
+1.50 1.02 1.09

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.21 4.54
-0.50 2.57 3.37
-0.25 2.13 2.82
0 1.68 2.24
+0.25 1.45 1.76
+0.50 1.33 1.53
+0.75 1.21 1.36
Primary Bets
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