Instituto Cordoba vs Boca Juniors Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Instituto Cordoba
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Boca Juniors
Kick-off 22:30 Stadium Estadio Presidente Peron

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Instituto Cordoba opened at 0 against Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is +0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Boca Juniors from the opening line. The current consensus is +0.25 across 3 of 7 valid books, with 43% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Instituto Cordoba -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.03 / 0.76
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Instituto Cordoba +0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
+0.25 · 3 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.48
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.48 AH points more toward Instituto Cordoba than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
+0.25
3 / 7 valid books · 43% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:02
Opening
0
20:03
Last Pre-Match
+0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.99 / 1.75 0 2.04 / 1.71 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.07 / 1.80 +0.25 1.78 / 1.50 — +0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.71 / 1.57 +0.25 1.77 / 1.50 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 -0.25 2.68 / 2.08 — -0.25
1xBet 0 2.03 / 1.78 0 2.08 / 1.75 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.72 / 1.55 +0.25 1.72 / 1.55 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.98 / 1.71 -0.25 2.53 / 2.01 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 7.20
-1.50 6.80 5.40
-1.25 6.30 4.89
-1.00 5.75 4.35
-0.75 3.60 2.93
-0.25 2.52 2.03
0 2.08 1.75
+0.25 1.65 1.52
+0.75 1.31 1.21
+1.00 1.14 1.07
+1.25 1.11 1.06
+1.50 1.09 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 5.75
-1.25 6.00 5.00
-1.00 6.60 4.25
-0.75 4.15 3.00
-0.50 3.30 2.38
-0.25 2.68 2.08
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.72 1.45
+0.50 1.55 1.32
+0.75 1.38 1.22
+1.00 1.21 1.11
+1.25 1.17 1.12
+1.50 1.14 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.90 2.96
-0.50 2.96 2.38
-0.25 2.53 2.01
0 2.07 1.65
+0.25 1.68 1.44
+0.50 1.49 1.33
+0.75 1.33 1.20

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.80 3.20
-0.50 3.20 2.47
-0.25 2.52 2.18
+0.25 1.72 1.55
+0.50 1.57 1.37
+0.75 1.38 1.29

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 7.20
-1.50 6.80 5.40
-1.25 6.30 4.90
-1.00 5.75 4.35
-0.75 3.60 2.93
-0.25 2.42 2.03
0 2.04 1.71
+0.25 1.65 1.46
+0.75 1.31 1.21
+1.00 1.14 1.07
+1.25 1.11 1.06
+1.50 1.09 1.04

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.58 4.93
-0.75 4.29 3.26
-0.50 3.27 2.57
-0.25 2.76 2.16
0 2.22 1.72
+0.25 1.78 1.50
+0.50 1.56 1.37
+0.75 1.38 1.25
+1.00 1.20 1.14

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.56 2.09
+0.25 1.77 1.50
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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