Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Aldosivi
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Sarmiento Junin
Kick-off 17:30 Stadium Estadio Jose Maria Minella

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Aldosivi opened at 0 against Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is 0. The closing line is -0.25. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Aldosivi +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.02 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Aldosivi 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Sarmiento Junin than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sarmiento Junin 0
@ 2.09
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.73
Price Advantage
+20.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:02
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
0
17:28
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.86 / 1.87 0 1.76 / 1.98 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.76 / 2.13 0 1.83 / 2.09 — 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.56 / 1.68 +0.25 1.56 / 1.68 — 0
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.82 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.79 / 2.02 -0.25 0
Betano +0.25 1.57 / 1.70 +0.25 1.53 / 1.75 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.80 / 1.87 0 1.72 / 1.96 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.39 8.80
-1.50 5.45 6.45
-1.25 4.90 5.89
-1.00 4.40 5.30
-0.75 2.98 3.43
-0.25 2.17 2.34
0 1.79 2.02
+0.25 1.49 1.69
+0.75 1.23 1.30
+1.00 1.09 1.14
+1.25 1.07 1.11
+1.50 1.05 1.08

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 6.80
-1.25 5.25 6.25
-1.00 4.50 5.75
-0.75 3.30 3.70
-0.50 2.50 2.85
-0.25 2.15 2.42
0 1.78 2.02
+0.25 1.52 1.68
+0.50 1.40 1.50
+0.75 1.26 1.32
+1.00 1.14 1.19
+1.25 1.12 1.16
+1.50 1.10 1.13

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.00 3.55
-0.50 2.42 2.74
-0.25 2.08 2.36
0 1.72 1.96
+0.25 1.50 1.64
+0.50 1.38 1.48
+0.75 1.24 1.32

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.10 3.85
-0.50 2.57 2.87
-0.25 2.12 2.57
+0.25 1.53 1.75
+0.50 1.45 1.53
+0.75 1.28 1.39

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 8.80
-1.50 5.45 6.45
-1.25 4.90 5.90
-1.00 4.40 5.30
-0.75 2.98 3.44
-0.25 2.08 2.34
0 1.76 1.98
+0.25 1.49 1.62
+0.75 1.23 1.30
+1.00 1.09 1.14
+1.25 1.07 1.11
+1.50 1.05 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.63 5.70
-0.75 3.22 3.77
-0.50 2.61 2.97
-0.25 2.22 2.53
0 1.83 2.09
+0.25 1.58 1.73
+0.50 1.44 1.54
+0.75 1.30 1.38
+1.00 1.17 1.22

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.21 2.42
+0.25 1.56 1.68
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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