Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Defensa Y Justicia
Oct 03, 2026 - 17:45
1.42 0.65
San Lorenzo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Defensa Y Justicia opened at -0.25 against San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.71
Defensa Y Justicia -0.71

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Defensa Y Justicia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Defensa Y Justicia than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Defensa Y Justicia -0.25
@ 1.82
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.55
Price Advantage
+17.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 3.15 -0.25 1.74 / 3.15 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 3.00 -0.25 1.82 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 3.15 -0.25 1.82 / 3.15 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 3.00 -0.25 1.77 / 3.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.71
xG 1.42 / 0.65 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Defensa Y Justicia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.55
Defensa Y Justicia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 1.55
Market price is 12.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.05 8.70
-1.25 3.58 8.25
-1.00 3.20 7.80
-0.75 2.41 4.84
-0.25 1.82 3.15
0 1.47 2.68
+0.25 1.28 1.99
+0.75 1.11 1.45
+1.00 1.02 1.26
+1.25 1.02 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.50 4.50
-0.50 2.10 3.45
-0.25 1.82 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 1.98
+0.50 1.30 1.70
+0.75 1.19 1.50

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 3.55
-0.25 1.77 3.00
0 1.45 2.50
+0.25 1.32 1.91
+0.50 1.24 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.05 8.70
-1.25 3.58 8.30
-1.00 3.20 7.80
-0.75 2.41 4.85
-0.25 1.74 3.15
0 1.44 2.63
+0.25 1.28 1.91
+0.75 1.11 1.45
+1.00 1.02 1.26
+1.25 1.02 1.21
Primary Bets
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