Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Velez Sarsfield
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 1-0)
Tigre
Kick-off 00:30 Stadium Jose Amalfitani

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Velez Sarsfield opened at -0.25 against Tigre in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.27
Velez Sarsfield +0.27

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.80 / 1.12
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Velez Sarsfield -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.52
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.52 AH points more toward Tigre than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Tigre +0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.52
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.44
Price Advantage
+121.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
00:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
00:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.84 -0.25 1.81 / 2.89 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.94 / 3.03 -0.25 1.93 / 3.19 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 3.00 -0.25 1.90 / 3.00 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.84 -0.25 1.89 / 2.89 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 3.00 -0.25 1.91 / 3.05 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 2.83 -0.25 1.83 / 2.91 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.75 9.30
-1.25 4.20 8.65
-1.00 3.58 7.90
-0.75 2.56 4.64
-0.25 1.89 2.89
0 1.53 2.50
+0.25 1.33 1.91
+0.75 1.12 1.40
+1.00 1.02 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.68 4.65
-0.50 2.25 3.55
-0.25 1.90 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 1.90
+0.50 1.27 1.62
+0.75 1.18 1.45

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.16 3.40
-0.25 1.83 2.91
0 1.49 2.38
+0.25 1.34 1.84
+0.50 1.26 1.59

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 3.55
-0.25 1.91 3.05
+0.25 1.40 1.93
+0.50 1.32 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.75 9.30
-1.25 4.20 8.70
-1.00 3.58 7.90
-0.75 2.56 4.65
-0.25 1.81 2.89
0 1.50 2.45
+0.25 1.33 1.83
+0.75 1.13 1.40
+1.00 1.02 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.81 5.10
-0.50 2.29 3.75
-0.25 1.93 3.19
0 1.56 2.59
+0.25 1.39 1.97
+0.50 1.30 1.68
+0.75 1.19 1.48
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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