San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

San Lorenzo
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-0)
Boca Juniors
Kick-off 17:45 Stadium Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

San Lorenzo opened at -0.25 against Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.25
San Lorenzo +0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.70 / 1.00
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
San Lorenzo -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.50
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.50 AH points more toward Boca Juniors than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Boca Juniors +0.25
@ 1.70
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.50
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.43
Price Advantage
+18.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:01
Opening
-0.25
16:15
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.04 / 1.77 -0.25 3.12 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.13 / 1.89 0 2.66 / 1.50 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.82 -0.25 3.10 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet 0 2.58 / 1.50 0 2.59 / 1.50 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.10 / 1.87 -0.25 3.10 / 1.87 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 3.10 / 1.74 -0.25 3.20 / 1.69 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 9.30 4.40
-1.25 8.65 3.88
-1.00 8.00 3.34
-0.75 4.70 2.44
-0.25 3.26 1.76
0 2.59 1.50
+0.25 1.89 1.34
+0.75 1.44 1.12
+1.00 1.24 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.80 2.60
-0.50 3.55 2.02
-0.25 3.10 1.78
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.02 1.35
+0.50 1.78 1.27
+0.75 1.48 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.70 1.98
-0.25 3.20 1.69
0 2.66 1.40
+0.25 2.01 1.29
+0.50 1.71 1.22

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.60 2.18
-0.25 3.10 1.87
+0.25 1.98 1.39
+0.50 1.72 1.31

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 9.30 4.15
-1.25 9.10 3.68
-1.00 8.50 3.14
-0.75 4.90 2.36
-0.25 3.12 1.70
0 2.66 1.43
+0.25 1.96 1.28
+0.75 1.47 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 5.03 2.59
-0.50 3.75 2.15
-0.25 3.22 1.83
0 2.66 1.50
+0.25 2.03 1.36
+0.50 1.73 1.28
+0.75 1.52 1.18
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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