Rosario Central vs Argentinos JRS Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rosario Central
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Argentinos JRS
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rosario Central opened at -0.25 against Argentinos JRS in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.11 / 1.20
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Rosario Central -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.33
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.33 AH points more toward Argentinos JRS than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Argentinos JRS +0.25
@ 3.15
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.33
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.64
Price Advantage
+92.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:01
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.80 / 2.89 -0.25 1.67 / 3.15 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.89 / 3.13 -0.25 1.94 / 3.03 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.85 -0.25 1.92 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.89 -0.25 1.74 / 3.15 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.92 -0.25 1.98 / 2.82 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 2.86 -0.25 1.86 / 2.77 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.88 9.00
-1.25 3.42 8.45
-1.00 2.97 8.00
-0.75 2.26 4.84
-0.25 1.74 3.15
0 1.45 2.76
+0.25 1.28 2.10
+0.75 1.11 1.51
+1.00 1.02 1.30

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.25 7.00
-1.00 3.80 6.80
-0.75 2.75 4.25
-0.50 2.25 3.30
-0.25 1.92 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.88
+0.50 1.32 1.62
+0.75 1.21 1.42
+1.00 1.10 1.25
+1.25 1.10 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 3.25
-0.25 1.86 2.77
0 1.53 2.29
+0.25 1.37 1.82
+0.50 1.28 1.59

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.32 3.30
-0.25 1.98 2.82
+0.25 1.45 1.87
+0.50 1.36 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.88 9.00
-1.25 3.42 8.50
-1.00 2.97 8.00
-0.75 2.26 4.85
-0.25 1.67 3.15
0 1.42 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.01
+0.75 1.12 1.51
+1.00 1.02 1.30

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.79 4.68
-0.50 2.28 3.54
-0.25 1.94 3.03
0 1.58 2.49
+0.25 1.42 1.94
+0.50 1.32 1.68
+0.75 1.21 1.48
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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