Platense vs Newells Old Boys Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Platense
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Newells Old Boys
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Platense opened at -0.25 against Newells Old Boys in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Platense -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.11 / 0.84
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Platense -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Newells Old Boys than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Newells Old Boys +0.25
@ 3.17
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.97
Price Advantage
+60.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:01
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 2.93 -0.25 1.82 / 2.89 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.51 / 2.63 -0.25 1.95 / 3.17 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.85 -0.25 1.88 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.93 -0.25 1.90 / 2.89 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 3.10 -0.25 1.91 / 3.10 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.78 / 2.96 -0.25 1.83 / 2.88 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 8.60
-1.25 4.10 8.05
-1.00 3.58 7.50
-0.75 2.56 4.50
-0.25 1.90 2.89
0 1.54 2.48
+0.25 1.33 1.90
+0.75 1.13 1.40
+1.00 1.03 1.21
+1.25 1.02 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.68 4.80
-0.50 2.20 3.55
-0.25 1.88 3.10
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.35 1.92
+0.50 1.27 1.65
+0.75 1.18 1.45

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.16 3.35
-0.25 1.83 2.88
0 1.50 2.36
+0.25 1.35 1.84
+0.50 1.26 1.59

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 3.65
-0.25 1.91 3.10
+0.25 1.39 1.93
+0.50 1.31 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 8.60
-1.25 4.15 8.10
-1.00 3.58 7.40
-0.75 2.56 4.50
-0.25 1.82 2.89
0 1.51 2.43
+0.25 1.33 1.83
+0.75 1.13 1.40
+1.00 1.03 1.21
+1.25 1.02 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.85 5.09
-0.50 2.33 3.75
-0.25 1.95 3.17
0 1.56 2.56
+0.25 1.40 1.95
+0.50 1.30 1.67
+0.75 1.19 1.47
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More