Union Santa Fe vs Instituto Cordoba Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Union Santa Fe
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Instituto Cordoba
Kick-off 00:15 Stadium Estadio 15 de Abril

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Union Santa Fe opened at 0 against Instituto Cordoba in the Liga Profesional Argentina. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 10 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.34
Union Santa Fe +0.34

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.65 / 1.05
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Union Santa Fe 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 10 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Instituto Cordoba than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Instituto Cordoba 0
@ 1.88
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.50
Price Advantage
+25.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 10 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
0
00:01
Last Pre-Match
0
00:14
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.80 / 1.95 0 2.00 / 1.77 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.70 / 2.08 0 1.98 / 1.77 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.73 / 2.15 0 2.03 / 1.88 0 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.60 / 1.65 +0.25 1.72 / 1.56 +0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 2.60 / 2.05 0 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.73 / 2.11 0 2.01 / 1.80 0 0
Unibet -0.50 2.25 / 2.85 -0.50 2.55 / 2.48 -0.50 0
Betano +0.25 1.57 / 1.72 +0.25 1.75 / 1.53 +0.25 0
Superbet -0.50 2.55 / 2.72 -0.50 2.90 / 2.42 -0.50 0
BetVictor 0 1.69 / 2.01 0 1.95 / 1.73 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.80 2.35
0 2.00 1.77
+0.50 1.55 1.40

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.05 6.95
-1.50 6.15 5.30
-1.25 5.70 4.84
-1.00 5.20 4.35
-0.75 3.50 3.02
-0.25 2.44 2.09
0 2.01 1.80
+0.25 1.63 1.56
+0.75 1.29 1.23
+1.00 1.14 1.10
+1.25 1.11 1.08
+1.50 1.09 1.06
+1.75 1.04 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 5.50
-1.25 6.80 4.65
-1.00 6.25 4.15
-0.75 4.00 3.00
-0.50 3.10 2.38
-0.25 2.60 2.05
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.75 1.48
+0.50 1.55 1.35
+0.75 1.38 1.23
+1.00 1.22 1.12
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.15 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.70 3.20
-0.50 2.86 2.53
-0.25 2.41 2.13
0 1.95 1.73
+0.25 1.61 1.48
+0.50 1.44 1.35
+0.75 1.29 1.22

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.90 3.15
-0.50 3.00 2.52
-0.25 2.57 2.15
+0.25 1.75 1.53
+0.50 1.55 1.42
+0.75 1.39 1.28

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 6.95
-1.50 6.15 5.30
-1.25 5.70 4.85
-1.00 5.20 4.35
-0.75 3.50 3.04
-0.25 2.35 2.10
0 1.98 1.77
+0.25 1.62 1.50
+0.75 1.30 1.23
+1.00 1.14 1.10
+1.25 1.11 1.08
+1.50 1.09 1.06
+1.75 1.04 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.85 5.23
-0.75 3.78 3.47
-0.50 2.95 2.75
-0.25 2.49 2.32
0 2.03 1.88
+0.25 1.67 1.59
+0.50 1.50 1.44
+0.75 1.34 1.30
+1.00 1.19 1.16

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.42 2.16
+0.25 1.72 1.56

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-2.50 14.00 12.00
-1.50 6.40 5.15
-0.50 2.90 2.42
+0.50 1.50 1.36
+1.50 1.13 1.08

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.48
+0.50 1.45 1.43
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More