Cobh Ramblers vs Kerry Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cobh Ramblers
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-2)
Kerry
Kick-off 18:45

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cobh Ramblers opened at -0.25 against Kerry in the First Division. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
Cobh Ramblers -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.43 / 1.17
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Cobh Ramblers -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Kerry than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kerry +0.25
@ 2.58
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+30.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.46 -0.25 1.98 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.95 / 2.65 0 1.75 / 2.13 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.50 0 1.75 / 2.05 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.46 -0.25 2.00 / 2.38 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.72 / 2.14 -0.25 1.79 / 2.11 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.24 8.20
-1.50 4.75 6.15
-1.25 4.30 5.65
-1.00 3.85 5.15
-0.75 2.78 3.50
-0.25 2.00 2.38
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.46 1.68
+0.75 1.22 1.34
+1.00 1.10 1.18
+1.25 1.08 1.14
+1.50 1.06 1.12
+1.75 1.02 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 6.00
-1.25 4.25 5.75
-1.00 3.80 5.00
-0.75 2.75 3.45
-0.50 2.35 2.75
-0.25 2.05 2.38
0 1.75 2.05
+0.25 1.55 1.75
+0.50 1.42 1.58
+0.75 1.30 1.42
+1.00 1.17 1.25
+1.25 1.14 1.21
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.02 2.32
-0.25 1.79 2.11
0 1.53 1.83
+0.25 1.38 1.56
+0.50 1.30 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.25 8.20
-1.50 4.75 6.15
-1.25 4.30 5.65
-1.00 3.85 5.15
-0.75 2.78 3.50
-0.25 1.98 2.38
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.46 1.67
+0.75 1.22 1.34
+1.00 1.10 1.18
+1.25 1.08 1.14
+1.50 1.06 1.12
+1.75 1.02 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.13 5.60
-0.75 3.02 3.80
-0.50 2.50 3.02
-0.25 2.13 2.58
0 1.75 2.13
+0.25 1.53 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.55
+0.75 1.27 1.39
+1.00 1.15 1.24
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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