Treaty United vs UCD Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Treaty United
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
1.27 1.33
UCD
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Treaty United opened at -0.25 against UCD in the First Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Treaty United -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward UCD than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
UCD +0.25
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+14.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.66 / 1.70 -0.25 2.28 / 1.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 3.18 / 2.00 -0.25 2.49 / 1.93 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.92 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.69 / 1.70 -0.25 2.31 / 1.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.28
Treaty United @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Treaty United @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.28 vs 2.45
Market price is 6.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 8.70
-2.00 9.80 7.80
-1.75 7.09 5.29
-1.50 5.35 4.10
-1.25 4.90 3.70
-1.00 4.45 3.28
-0.75 3.14 2.49
-0.25 2.31 1.88
0 2.03 1.67
+0.25 1.75 1.52
+0.75 1.42 1.27
+1.00 1.25 1.14
+1.25 1.20 1.11
+1.50 1.16 1.09
+1.75 1.09 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 3.80
-1.25 5.50 3.45
-1.00 5.00 3.10
-0.75 3.55 2.42
-0.50 3.00 2.15
-0.25 2.60 1.90
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.90 1.48
+0.50 1.68 1.38
+0.75 1.52 1.27
+1.00 1.35 1.17
+1.25 1.30 1.15
+1.50 1.25 1.13

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 5.30
-1.50 5.35 4.10
-1.25 4.90 3.70
-1.00 4.45 3.28
-0.75 3.14 2.49
-0.25 2.28 1.88
0 2.03 1.67
+0.25 1.75 1.50
+0.75 1.42 1.27
+1.00 1.25 1.14
+1.25 1.20 1.11
+1.50 1.16 1.09
+1.75 1.09 1.04

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.24 3.20
-0.75 3.43 2.53
-0.50 2.78 2.16
-0.25 2.49 1.93
0 2.19 1.68
+0.25 1.88 1.53
+0.50 1.69 1.43
+0.75 1.52 1.30
+1.00 1.34 1.21
Primary Bets
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