Athlone Town vs Cork City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Athlone Town
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
1.12 1.48
Cork City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Athlone Town opened at -0.25 against Cork City in the First Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
Athlone Town +0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Athlone Town -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.57
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.57 AH points more toward Cork City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Cork City +0.25
@ 1.68
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.57
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.49
Price Advantage
+12.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.92 / 1.60 -0.25 2.92 / 1.60 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.11 / 1.68 -0.25 3.11 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.95 / 1.60 -0.25 2.95 / 1.60 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
xG 1.12 / 1.48 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.11
Athlone Town @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.04
Athlone Town @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.11 vs 3.04
Market price is 2.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 3.80
-1.50 6.75 3.08
-1.25 6.35 2.78
-1.00 5.95 2.43
-0.75 4.15 2.03
-0.25 2.95 1.60
0 2.60 1.41
+0.25 2.08 1.32
+0.75 1.63 1.16
+1.00 1.44 1.07
+1.25 1.34 1.06
+1.50 1.28 1.04

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.70 3.80
-1.50 6.75 3.08
-1.25 6.35 2.78
-1.00 5.95 2.43
-0.75 4.15 2.03
-0.25 2.92 1.60
0 2.60 1.41
+0.25 2.08 1.31
+0.75 1.63 1.16
+1.00 1.44 1.07
+1.25 1.34 1.06
+1.50 1.28 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.50 1.92
-0.25 3.11 1.68
0 2.71 1.45
+0.25 2.17 1.35
+0.50 1.88 1.29
Primary Bets
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