Drogheda United vs Derry City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Drogheda United
Oct 16, 2026 - 18:45
1.01 1.55
Derry City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Drogheda United opened at -0.25 against Derry City in the Premier Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.49
Drogheda United +0.49

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Drogheda United -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.74
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.74 AH points more toward Derry City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Derry City +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.74
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.39
Price Advantage
+40.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.54 / 1.83 -0.25 2.54 / 1.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.88 / 1.50 +0.25 1.88 / 1.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.60 / 1.83 -0.25 2.60 / 1.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.49
xG 1.01 / 1.55 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.54
Drogheda United @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.54
Drogheda United @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.54 vs 3.54
Market price is 28.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 5.35
-1.50 6.50 4.10
-1.25 5.99 3.68
-1.00 5.45 3.20
-0.75 3.60 2.46
-0.25 2.60 1.83
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.82 1.45
+0.75 1.43 1.21
+1.00 1.26 1.08
+1.25 1.20 1.06
+1.50 1.16 1.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.80 5.35
-1.50 6.50 4.10
-1.25 6.00 3.68
-1.00 5.45 3.20
-0.75 3.60 2.47
-0.25 2.54 1.83
0 2.23 1.60
+0.25 1.82 1.42
+0.75 1.43 1.21
+1.00 1.26 1.08
+1.25 1.20 1.06
+1.50 1.16 1.05

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.73 2.63
-0.50 2.98 2.23
-0.25 2.63 1.95
0 2.25 1.66
+0.25 1.88 1.50
+0.50 1.67 1.39
+0.75 1.49 1.27
Primary Bets
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