Dundalk vs Bohemians Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dundalk
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
1.49 1.66
Bohemians
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dundalk opened at -0.25 against Bohemians in the Premier Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
Dundalk +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Dundalk -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.41
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.41 AH points more toward Bohemians than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Dundalk -0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.41
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.55
Price Advantage
+17.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.80 / 1.70 -0.25 2.80 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.95 / 1.78 -0.25 2.95 / 1.78 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 -0.25 3.00 / 1.72 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.86 / 1.70 -0.25 2.86 / 1.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
xG 1.49 / 1.66 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.95
Dundalk @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.55
Dundalk @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.95 vs 2.55
Market price is 15.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.35
-1.50 6.85 3.42
-1.25 6.40 3.08
-1.00 5.90 2.74
-0.75 4.05 2.21
-0.25 2.86 1.70
0 2.48 1.49
+0.25 1.96 1.38
+0.75 1.53 1.17
+1.00 1.35 1.07
+1.25 1.28 1.05
+1.50 1.23 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.45
-1.25 6.60 3.10
-1.00 6.25 2.68
-0.75 4.25 2.25
-0.50 3.45 1.98
-0.25 3.00 1.72
0 2.60 1.48
+0.25 2.08 1.38
+0.50 1.82 1.30
+0.75 1.62 1.21
+1.00 1.45 1.12
+1.25 1.35 1.11
+1.50 1.30 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 4.35
-1.50 6.85 3.42
-1.25 6.40 3.08
-1.00 5.90 2.74
-0.75 4.05 2.21
-0.25 2.80 1.70
0 2.48 1.49
+0.25 1.96 1.35
+0.75 1.53 1.17
+1.00 1.35 1.07
+1.25 1.28 1.05
+1.50 1.23 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.35 2.04
-0.25 2.95 1.78
0 2.55 1.52
+0.25 2.07 1.40
+0.50 1.81 1.32
Primary Bets
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