Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Derry City
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:45
1.28 1.34
St Patrick's Athl.
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Derry City opened at -0.25 against St Patrick's Athl. in the Premier Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Derry City -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward St Patrick's Athl. than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
St Patrick's Athl. +0.25
@ 1.99
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+17.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.42 / 1.91 -0.25 2.42 / 1.91 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.64 / 2.01 -0.25 2.68 / 1.99 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.63 / 1.95 -0.25 2.47 / 1.91 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.28 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.68
Derry City @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Derry City @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.68 vs 2.45
Market price is 9.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.05 5.69
-1.50 6.05 4.40
-1.25 5.59 3.96
-1.00 5.10 3.50
-0.75 3.50 2.60
-0.25 2.47 1.91
0 2.12 1.66
+0.25 1.74 1.49
+0.75 1.39 1.22
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.25 1.18 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.70
-1.50 6.05 4.40
-1.25 5.60 3.95
-1.00 5.10 3.50
-0.75 3.50 2.60
-0.25 2.42 1.91
0 2.12 1.66
+0.25 1.74 1.46
+0.75 1.39 1.22
+1.00 1.22 1.10
+1.25 1.17 1.08
+1.50 1.14 1.06
+1.75 1.08 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.92 2.75
-0.50 3.09 2.30
-0.25 2.68 1.99
0 2.26 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.48
+0.50 1.63 1.37
+0.75 1.46 1.25
Primary Bets
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