Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Shamrock Rovers
Oct 12, 2026 - 19:00
1.14 1.37
Bohemians
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Shamrock Rovers opened at -0.25 against Bohemians in the Premier Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Shamrock Rovers +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Shamrock Rovers -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Bohemians than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Bohemians +0.25
@ 2.50
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.56
Price Advantage
+60.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.43 -0.25 1.92 / 2.38 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.94 / 2.43 -0.25 1.94 / 2.43 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
xG 1.14 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.92
Shamrock Rovers @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.78
Shamrock Rovers @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.92 vs 2.78
Market price is 30.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.30 7.40
-1.50 4.15 5.70
-1.25 3.76 5.25
-1.00 3.35 4.85
-0.75 2.57 3.32
-0.25 1.94 2.43
0 1.67 2.13
+0.25 1.47 1.81
+0.75 1.25 1.41
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.09 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.09

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.25
-1.25 3.90 5.75
-1.00 3.45 5.25
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.25 2.85
-0.25 1.98 2.50
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.50 1.82
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.16 1.30
+1.25 1.14 1.24
+1.50 1.12 1.21

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.40 7.20
-1.50 4.25 5.55
-1.25 3.84 5.15
-1.00 3.42 4.75
-0.75 2.60 3.34
-0.25 1.92 2.38
0 1.69 2.10
+0.25 1.49 1.75
+0.75 1.25 1.40
+1.00 1.12 1.23
+1.25 1.10 1.18
+1.50 1.08 1.15
+1.75 1.03 1.09
Primary Bets
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