Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sao Paulo
Oct 18, 2026 - 00:00
1.05 1.15
Vasco DA Gama
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sao Paulo opened at -0.25 against Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Sao Paulo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Vasco DA Gama than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Vasco DA Gama +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+84.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.64 -0.25 1.81 / 2.64 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.76 -0.25 1.91 / 2.76 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.64 -0.25 1.91 / 2.64 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.79 / 2.77 -0.25 1.79 / 2.77 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.05 / 1.15 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Sao Paulo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.59
Sao Paulo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.59
Market price is 26.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.60 9.00
-1.50 4.25 7.30
-1.25 3.78 6.75
-1.00 3.28 6.15
-0.75 2.47 3.94
-0.25 1.91 2.64
0 1.61 2.38
+0.25 1.39 1.93
+0.75 1.17 1.43
+1.00 1.06 1.25
+1.25 1.04 1.19
+1.50 1.03 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 6.60
-1.25 3.55 6.00
-1.00 3.10 7.00
-0.75 2.38 4.40
-0.50 2.05 3.45
-0.25 1.80 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.05
+0.50 1.30 1.75
+0.75 1.20 1.55
+1.00 1.10 1.35
+1.25 1.12 1.27
+1.50 1.11 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 2.77
-0.25 1.79 2.77
0 1.51 2.35
+0.25 1.37 1.88
+0.50 1.37 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.60 8.90
-1.50 4.25 7.30
-1.25 3.78 6.75
-1.00 3.28 6.15
-0.75 2.47 3.94
-0.25 1.81 2.64
0 1.56 2.31
+0.25 1.39 1.83
+0.75 1.18 1.43
+1.00 1.06 1.25
+1.25 1.04 1.19
+1.50 1.03 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.61 4.02
-0.50 2.18 3.15
-0.25 1.91 2.76
0 1.62 2.36
+0.25 1.47 1.94
+0.50 1.37 1.71
+0.75 1.25 1.51
Primary Bets
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