Mirassol vs Internacional Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mirassol
Oct 16, 2026 - 23:00
1.34 1.35
Internacional
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 5 books · 60% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mirassol opened at -0.25 against Internacional in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.01
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Mirassol -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.26
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.26 AH points more toward Internacional than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Internacional +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.26
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.73
Price Advantage
+50.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.42 -0.25 1.89 / 2.42 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet 0 1.70 / 2.20 0 1.70 / 2.20 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.30 / 3.00 -0.50 2.30 / 3.05 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 2.51 -0.25 1.90 / 2.51 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.01
xG 1.34 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.89
Mirassol @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Mirassol @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.89 vs 2.36
Market price is 19.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.35 7.50
-1.50 4.20 5.80
-1.25 3.80 5.35
-1.00 3.34 4.95
-0.75 2.53 3.35
-0.25 1.99 2.42
0 1.70 2.20
+0.25 1.46 1.85
+0.75 1.24 1.41
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.09 1.19
+1.50 1.07 1.15
+1.75 1.03 1.09

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.40
-1.25 3.90 5.90
-1.00 3.55 5.50
-0.75 2.68 3.70
-0.50 2.25 3.00
-0.25 2.00 2.60
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.48 1.85
+0.50 1.38 1.62
+0.75 1.26 1.45
+1.00 1.15 1.27
+1.25 1.13 1.24
+1.50 1.12 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.90 2.51
0 1.61 2.13
+0.25 1.45 1.78

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 3.05
+0.50 1.40 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.35 7.50
-1.50 4.20 5.80
-1.25 3.80 5.35
-1.00 3.34 4.95
-0.75 2.53 3.35
-0.25 1.89 2.42
0 1.65 2.14
+0.25 1.46 1.76
+0.75 1.24 1.41
+1.00 1.11 1.24
+1.25 1.09 1.19
+1.50 1.07 1.15
+1.75 1.03 1.09
Primary Bets
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