Coritiba vs Botafogo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Coritiba
Oct 12, 2026 - 19:00
1.12 1.28
Botafogo
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Coritiba opened at 0 against Botafogo in the Serie A. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Coritiba +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Coritiba 0
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Botafogo than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Botafogo 0
@ 1.98
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.81
Price Advantage
+9.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.87 / 1.87 0 1.87 / 1.87 — 0
Bet365 0 1.88 / 1.98 0 1.88 / 1.98 — 0
1xBet 0 1.92 / 1.92 0 1.92 / 1.92 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.65 / 1.70 +0.25 1.65 / 1.70 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.81 / 1.86 0 1.81 / 1.86 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.12 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.87
Coritiba @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
Coritiba @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.87 vs 2.24
Market price is 16.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.30 9.40
-1.75 6.55 7.25
-1.50 5.00 5.00
-1.25 4.60 4.59
-1.00 4.15 4.15
-0.75 2.93 2.93
-0.25 2.25 2.13
0 1.92 1.92
+0.25 1.59 1.68
+0.75 1.31 1.31
+1.00 1.16 1.16
+1.25 1.13 1.13
+1.50 1.10 1.10
+1.75 1.05 1.05
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 7.00
-1.50 5.00 5.50
-1.25 4.50 4.80
-1.00 4.10 4.40
-0.75 3.00 3.10
-0.50 2.50 2.60
-0.25 2.20 2.30
0 1.88 1.98
+0.25 1.60 1.65
+0.50 1.48 1.50
+0.75 1.35 1.38
+1.00 1.20 1.23
+1.25 1.18 1.19
+1.50 1.15 1.17
+1.75 1.10 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.45 2.52
-0.25 2.13 2.19
0 1.81 1.86
+0.25 1.58 1.61
+0.50 1.44 1.46

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.15 3.30
-0.50 2.57 2.67
-0.25 2.22 2.32
+0.25 1.65 1.70
+0.50 1.50 1.53
+0.75 1.36 1.38

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.30 9.30
-1.75 6.55 6.55
-1.50 5.00 5.00
-1.25 4.60 4.60
-1.00 4.15 4.15
-0.75 2.93 2.93
-0.25 2.13 2.13
0 1.87 1.87
+0.25 1.59 1.59
+0.75 1.31 1.31
+1.00 1.16 1.16
+1.25 1.13 1.13
+1.50 1.10 1.10
+1.75 1.05 1.05
Primary Bets
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