Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Chapecoense-sc
Oct 12, 2026 - 22:30
1.24 1.34
Atletico Paranaense
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Chapecoense-sc opened at -0.25 against Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Chapecoense-sc -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Atletico Paranaense than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Chapecoense-sc -0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.52
Price Advantage
+26.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.84 / 1.72 -0.25 2.84 / 1.72 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.80 -0.25 3.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.18 / 1.72 -0.25 3.18 / 1.72 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.05 / 1.80 -0.25 3.05 / 1.80 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.86 / 1.73 -0.25 2.86 / 1.73 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.24 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.84
Chapecoense-sc @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Chapecoense-sc @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.84 vs 2.52
Market price is 12.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.30 3.75
-1.25 6.85 3.34
-1.00 6.35 2.92
-0.75 4.20 2.28
-0.25 3.18 1.72
0 2.56 1.54
+0.25 1.94 1.37
+0.75 1.50 1.16
+1.00 1.31 1.06
+1.25 1.24 1.04
+1.50 1.19 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.60 3.10
-0.75 4.40 2.38
-0.50 3.45 2.05
-0.25 3.00 1.80
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.50 1.75 1.30
+0.75 1.55 1.20
+1.00 1.35 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.86 1.73
0 2.44 1.47
+0.25 1.95 1.35

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.50 2.07
-0.25 3.05 1.80
+0.25 2.07 1.40
+0.50 1.80 1.33

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 4.80
-1.50 7.30 3.75
-1.25 6.85 3.34
-1.00 6.35 2.92
-0.75 4.20 2.29
-0.25 2.84 1.72
0 2.48 1.49
+0.25 1.94 1.34
+0.75 1.50 1.16
+1.00 1.31 1.06
+1.25 1.24 1.04
+1.50 1.19 1.03
Primary Bets
More