RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

RB Bragantino
Oct 13, 2026 - 00:00
1.32 0.99
Cruzeiro
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

RB Bragantino opened at -0.25 against Cruzeiro in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
RB Bragantino -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
RB Bragantino -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward RB Bragantino than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Cruzeiro +0.25
@ 2.66
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+29.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.61 -0.25 1.83 / 2.51 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.74 / 3.17 -0.25 1.96 / 2.66 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 -0.25 1.95 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.61 -0.25 1.92 / 2.51 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.88 / 2.80 -0.50 2.22 / 3.05 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 1.80 / 2.68 -0.25 1.85 / 2.54 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.32 / 0.99 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
RB Bragantino @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.95
RB Bragantino @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 1.95
Market price is 0.5% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.84 7.40
-1.50 3.82 5.75
-1.25 3.42 5.35
-1.00 3.08 4.95
-0.75 2.43 3.52
-0.25 1.92 2.51
0 1.66 2.28
+0.25 1.43 1.92
+0.75 1.22 1.44
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 6.25
-1.25 3.70 5.90
-1.00 3.30 5.50
-0.75 2.50 3.70
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.95 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.90
+0.50 1.38 1.65
+0.75 1.26 1.50
+1.00 1.15 1.32
+1.25 1.13 1.26
+1.50 1.12 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.54
0 1.58 2.18
+0.25 1.44 1.82

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.22 3.05
+0.50 1.40 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.85 7.40
-1.50 3.82 5.75
-1.25 3.42 5.35
-1.00 3.08 4.95
-0.75 2.43 3.52
-0.25 1.83 2.51
0 1.61 2.21
+0.25 1.43 1.82
+0.75 1.22 1.44
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.07 1.18
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.64 3.83
-0.50 2.23 3.03
-0.25 1.96 2.66
0 1.65 2.26
+0.25 1.49 1.89
+0.50 1.39 1.67
+0.75 1.27 1.50
Primary Bets
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