Gremio vs Palmeiras Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gremio
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Palmeiras
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium Arena do Grêmio

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gremio opened at -0.25 against Palmeiras in the Serie A. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.72
Gremio +0.72

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.94 / 1.71
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Gremio -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.97
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.97 AH points more toward Palmeiras than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Palmeiras +0.25
@ 1.72
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.97
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.31
Price Advantage
+31.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
04:01
Opening
-0.25
02:15
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.68 / 1.80 -0.25 2.88 / 1.72 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.90 -0.25 3.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.85 / 1.80 0 2.59 / 1.53 — +0.25
Betano -0.25 2.92 / 1.85 -0.25 3.15 / 1.75 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 4.80
-1.50 7.50 3.75
-1.25 7.00 3.34
-1.00 6.50 2.92
-0.75 4.25 2.28
-0.25 3.22 1.72
0 2.59 1.53
+0.25 1.94 1.37
+0.75 1.50 1.15
+1.00 1.31 1.05
+1.25 1.24 1.04
+1.50 1.19 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.60 3.30
-1.00 6.00 2.85
-0.75 4.65 2.30
-0.50 3.55 2.00
-0.25 3.10 1.70
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.10 1.35
+0.50 1.85 1.27
+0.75 1.60 1.18
+1.00 1.40 1.12
+1.25 1.32 1.11

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.35 2.02
-0.25 3.15 1.75
+0.25 2.12 1.39
+0.50 1.83 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 4.80
-1.50 7.50 3.75
-1.25 7.00 3.34
-1.00 6.50 2.92
-0.75 4.25 2.29
-0.25 2.88 1.72
0 2.51 1.48
+0.25 1.94 1.33
+0.75 1.50 1.15
+1.00 1.31 1.05
+1.25 1.24 1.04
+1.50 1.19 1.03
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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