Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Chicago Fire
Oct 15, 2026 - 00:30
1.36 1.64
Philadelphia Union
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Chicago Fire opened at 0 against Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.26
Chicago Fire +0.26

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Chicago Fire 0
Model–Market Gap
0.26
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.26 AH points more toward Philadelphia Union than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Philadelphia Union 0
@ 1.78
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.26
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+3.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.96 / 1.77 0 1.96 / 1.77 — 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.80 / 1.62 +0.25 1.80 / 1.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.26
xG 1.36 / 1.64 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
Chicago Fire @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Chicago Fire @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 2.39
Market price is 18.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.25 5.25
-1.50 4.65 4.00
-1.25 4.40 3.70
-1.00 4.00 3.45
-0.75 3.10 2.68
-0.50 2.60 2.30
-0.25 2.30 2.05
0 2.02 1.78
+0.25 1.75 1.60
+0.50 1.60 1.48
+0.75 1.45 1.35
+1.00 1.30 1.23
+1.25 1.26 1.20
+1.50 1.23 1.18
+1.75 1.16 1.12

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.15 2.75
-0.50 2.65 2.35
-0.25 2.35 2.07
+0.25 1.80 1.62
+0.50 1.62 1.52
+0.75 1.47 1.38

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.10 7.80
-2.00 8.40 7.10
-1.75 5.80 4.95
-1.50 4.60 3.95
-1.25 4.20 3.58
-1.00 3.84 3.20
-0.75 2.88 2.56
-0.25 2.19 1.96
0 1.96 1.77
+0.25 1.70 1.56
+0.75 1.40 1.32
+1.00 1.26 1.18
+1.25 1.21 1.15
+1.50 1.17 1.13
+1.75 1.11 1.07
Primary Bets
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