Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Colorado Rapids
Oct 11, 2026 - 01:30
1.42 0.99
San Jose Earthquakes
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Colorado Rapids opened at -0.25 against San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.39
Colorado Rapids -0.39

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Colorado Rapids -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Colorado Rapids than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
San Jose Earthquakes +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.18
Price Advantage
+42.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.59 / 3.05 -0.25 1.59 / 3.05 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.72 / 3.15 -0.25 1.72 / 3.10 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.64 / 2.96 -0.25 1.63 / 2.99 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.39
xG 1.42 / 0.99 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.59
Colorado Rapids @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.85
Colorado Rapids @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.59 vs 1.85
Market price is 14.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 2.85 7.00
-1.00 2.60 6.60
-0.75 2.15 4.50
-0.50 1.90 3.55
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.19 1.68
+1.00 1.11 1.48
+1.25 1.10 1.40

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.63 2.99
0 1.42 2.59
+0.25 1.32 2.10

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.72 3.10
+0.25 1.39 2.18

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.04 7.30
-1.25 2.76 6.85
-1.00 2.48 6.40
-0.75 2.03 4.40
-0.25 1.59 3.05
0 1.37 2.66
+0.25 1.28 2.11
+0.75 1.14 1.65
+1.00 1.05 1.49
+1.25 1.04 1.36
+1.50 1.03 1.29
Primary Bets
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