Charlotte vs FC Dallas Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Charlotte
Oct 10, 2026 - 23:30
1.31 1.40
FC Dallas
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 5 books · 60% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Charlotte opened at -0.25 against FC Dallas in the Major League Soccer. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Charlotte -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.33
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.33 AH points more toward FC Dallas than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
FC Dallas +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.33
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+55.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.49 -0.25 1.79 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.51 / 1.92 +0.25 1.53 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 2.67 -0.25 1.95 / 2.57 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.52 -0.25 1.85 / 2.48 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
xG 1.31 / 1.40 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.79
Charlotte @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.49
Charlotte @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.79 vs 2.49
Market price is 28.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 5.90
-1.25 3.45 5.50
-1.00 3.10 5.00
-0.75 2.42 3.55
-0.50 2.15 3.00
-0.25 1.90 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.90
+0.50 1.38 1.68
+0.75 1.27 1.52
+1.00 1.17 1.35
+1.25 1.15 1.30
+1.50 1.13 1.25

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.10 2.82
-0.25 1.85 2.48
0 1.60 2.15
+0.25 1.46 1.82
+0.50 1.36 1.63

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.22 2.90
-0.25 1.95 2.57
+0.25 1.53 1.90
+0.50 1.44 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.52 5.55
-1.25 3.22 5.20
-1.00 2.99 4.80
-0.75 2.34 3.42
-0.25 1.79 2.49
0 1.55 2.17
+0.25 1.42 1.83
+0.75 1.23 1.49
+1.00 1.11 1.35
+1.25 1.10 1.27
+1.50 1.08 1.22

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.61 3.56
-0.50 2.24 2.88
-0.25 1.98 2.55
0 1.69 2.21
+0.25 1.53 1.88
+0.50 1.42 1.68
+0.75 1.30 1.51
Primary Bets
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