Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Toronto FC
Oct 10, 2026 - 17:00
1.15 1.33
CF Montreal
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Toronto FC opened at -0.25 against CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
Toronto FC +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Toronto FC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.41
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.41 AH points more toward CF Montreal than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
CF Montreal +0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.41
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.59
Price Advantage
+98.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.61 / 2.97 -0.25 1.61 / 2.97 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.71 / 3.14 -0.25 1.70 / 3.16 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.68 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.95 -0.25 1.75 / 3.05 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.64 / 2.96 -0.25 1.64 / 2.96 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
xG 1.15 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.70
Toronto FC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.69
Toronto FC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.70 vs 2.69
Market price is 36.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.00
-1.25 2.85 6.80
-1.00 2.60 6.40
-0.75 2.15 4.40
-0.50 1.92 3.45
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.30 1.88
+0.75 1.20 1.68
+1.00 1.12 1.48
+1.25 1.10 1.40
+1.50 1.12 1.32

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.64 2.96
0 1.42 2.59
+0.25 1.33 2.09

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 3.05
+0.25 1.40 2.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.15 7.30
-1.25 2.84 6.85
-1.00 2.57 6.40
-0.75 2.07 4.30
-0.25 1.61 2.97
0 1.39 2.59
+0.25 1.30 2.07
+0.75 1.14 1.63
+1.00 1.05 1.46
+1.25 1.04 1.34
+1.50 1.03 1.27

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.94 3.57
-0.25 1.70 3.16
0 1.47 2.75
+0.25 1.36 2.20
+0.50 1.30 1.91
Primary Bets
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