Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Columbus Crew
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Inter Miami
Kick-off 23:00 Stadium ScottsMiracle-Gro Field

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Columbus Crew opened at 0 against Inter Miami in the Major League Soccer. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Columbus Crew from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.15
Columbus Crew +0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Columbus Crew -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward Inter Miami than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Inter Miami +0.25
@ 2.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.61
Price Advantage
+27.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
0
20:02
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.93 / 1.80 -0.25 2.32 / 1.90 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.95 / 1.90 0 2.17 / 1.76 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 -0.25 2.42 / 1.98 — -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.80 / 1.62 +0.25 1.85 / 1.60 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.92 / 1.76 -0.25 2.36 / 1.91 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.00
-1.50 5.50 3.90
-1.25 5.00 3.55
-1.00 4.50 3.30
-0.75 3.45 2.60
-0.50 2.75 2.20
-0.25 2.42 1.98
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.82 1.52
+0.50 1.65 1.42
+0.75 1.48 1.30
+1.00 1.32 1.19
+1.25 1.27 1.17
+1.50 1.24 1.15
+1.75 1.17 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.66 2.15
-0.25 2.36 1.91
0 2.05 1.66
+0.25 1.77 1.50
+0.50 1.60 1.40

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.30 2.65
-0.50 2.75 2.27
-0.25 2.42 2.00
+0.25 1.85 1.60
+0.50 1.67 1.47
+0.75 1.52 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 7.50
-2.00 9.30 6.80
-1.75 6.45 4.80
-1.50 5.00 3.84
-1.25 4.65 3.50
-1.00 4.25 3.14
-0.75 3.15 2.47
-0.25 2.32 1.90
0 2.07 1.69
+0.25 1.75 1.50
+0.75 1.43 1.27
+1.00 1.27 1.15
+1.25 1.22 1.12
+1.50 1.18 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.41 2.72
-0.50 2.83 2.31
-0.25 2.51 2.05
0 2.17 1.76
+0.25 1.87 1.58
+0.50 1.68 1.47
+0.75 1.51 1.35
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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