Сезон 2 Championship: ставки и результаты от ИИБета

The draw option for HEBC vs Borussia Dortmund has a significant closing edge of 27.46, strong steam score of 72, and a high model probability of 29.63% compared to the market probability of 2.17%. Despite the large elo difference favoring Dortmund, the market is illiquid, and the odds movement suggests value. Main risk: Dortmund's superior quality and historical dominance.

Korona Kielce II has a strong closing edge of 28.01 and significant model probability of 38.01% versus market probability of 10%. The sharp repricing signal and odds movement indicate value. Main risk: Elo difference favors Radomiak Radom, indicating a potential mismatch in team quality.

SV Elversberg has an exceptional closing edge of 34.52 and a model probability of 57.61% compared to market probability of 23.09%. The sharp repricing signal and odds movement suggest strong value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences heavily favor Borussia Mönchengladbach, indicating a potential mismatch in team quality.

Samtredia has a strong steam signal with an 80 steam score and a notable odds drop from 8.0 to 6.0. The closing edge is significant at 16.18 percentage points, and the model probability is substantially higher than the market probability. Main risk: Low pattern similarity and moderate elo difference.

Velez Sarsfield has strong steam with an 86 steam score and a significant odds drop from 4.75 to 3.9. The closing edge is positive at 9.53 percentage points, and the model probability is higher than the market probability. Main risk: Negative elo difference of -100.8, indicating a weaker team on paper.

Korona Kielce II has a strong steam signal with a 79 steam score and a significant odds drop from 13.0 to 10.0. The closing edge is extremely high at 28.01 percentage points, and the model probability is much higher than the market probability. Main risk: Low breadth percentage and low market probability.

MC Oran has seen a drift with odds lengthening from 6.0 to 7.5, despite a strong drift signal and a positive closing edge of 15.92 percentage points. The market appears to be overreacting to the drift. Main risk: Elo and xG differences are not strongly in favor of MC Oran.

US Biskra has experienced strong steam, but the model probability is nearly identical to the market's, suggesting no real edge exists. JS Saoura has a better Elo rating and xG differential, making them the more reliable side. Main risk: US Biskra's home advantage and potential for further market support.

Burnley has seen a significant drift in odds, with their implied probability dropping sharply. The model probability for Burnley is much lower than the market's, indicating overpricing on the home side. Middlesbrough, despite being the away team, has a better Elo rating and xG differential. Main risk: Burnley's home advantage and potential market mispricing correction.

The market has heavily drifted against Milton Keynes Dons, but the model probability is still lower than the market's, suggesting the steam is overdone. Wigan has a higher Elo rating and a positive xG differential, making them a more solid pick. Main risk: Milton Keynes Dons' recent form could justify the market move.