The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 | 41.9% | 61.6% | -19.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 20.9% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
| 萨尔达拉帕特 | 28.8% | 17.5% | +11.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 19.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 by 19.7 percentage points (61.6% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · 萨尔达拉帕特 28.8%
- xG · 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 1.44 — 萨尔达拉帕特 1.16
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 1.49 · Draw 4.38 · 萨尔达拉帕特 5.24
- Implied 1X2 · 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 61.6% · Draw 20.9% · 萨尔达拉帕特 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 1.49 · Draw 4.38 · 萨尔达拉帕特 5.24
- Implied 1X2 · 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 61.6% · Draw 20.9% · 萨尔达拉帕特 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
亚美尼亚超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 诺亚FC | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | 埃里温凤凰 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | 阿拉什克特队 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | 萨尔达拉帕特 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | 乌拉尔图足球俱乐部 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | 希拉克 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 阿拉拉特 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | BKMA队 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | 万恩 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | 甘扎萨尔 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | 休尼克 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 诺亚FC | 8 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | 阿拉什克特队 | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 3 | 埃里温凤凰 | 8 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 | 阿拉拉特-亚美尼亚 | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 | 萨尔达拉帕特 | 8 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | 乌拉尔图足球俱乐部 | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | 希拉克 | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | BKMA队 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | 甘扎萨尔 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 3 |
| 10 | 阿拉拉特 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | 万恩 | 8 | 4 | 21 | -17 | 4 |
| 12 | 休尼克 | 8 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 2 |
