AI correctly predicted the 沃拉 win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 沃拉 沃拉 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 地拉那迪纳摩 | 34.7% | 51.4% | -16.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.3% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| 沃拉 | 35.6% | 18.3% | +17.4 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates 沃拉's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.3%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（沃拉 win 0–1）。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 沃拉.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 沃拉 more conservatively (18.2% vs model 35.6%, 17.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (沃拉 win 0–1).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 地拉那迪纳摩 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · 沃拉 35.6%
- xG · 地拉那迪纳摩 1.29 — 沃拉 1.31
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 地拉那迪纳摩 1.75 · Draw 2.97 · 沃拉 4.92
- Implied 1X2 · 地拉那迪纳摩 51.4% · Draw 30.3% · 沃拉 18.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 地拉那迪纳摩 1.75 · Draw 2.97 · 沃拉 4.92
- Implied 1X2 · 地拉那迪纳摩 51.4% · Draw 30.3% · 沃拉 18.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 沃拉 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
阿尔巴尼亚超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 地拉那图塔 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | 埃格纳蒂亚罗戈津 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | 地拉那迪纳摩 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | 拉奇 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | 埃尔巴萨尼AF | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | 地拉那 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | 帕尔蒂扎尼 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | 沃拉 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | 斯坎德培科尔察 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | 弗拉兹尼亚什科德尔 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 埃格纳蒂亚罗戈津 | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | 地拉那图塔 | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 13 |
| 3 | 地拉那迪纳摩 | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | 地拉那 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 5 | 埃尔巴萨尼AF | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | 拉奇 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | 帕尔蒂扎尼 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | 斯坎德培科尔察 | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | 弗拉兹尼亚什科德尔 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | 沃拉 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
