The model missed the final outcome (FocuSport win 2–3).
The model had projected Sporting Cascades at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (5 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 Sporting Cascades FocuSport ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cascades | 37.1% | 38.3% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.7% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| FocuSport | 33.3% | 29.0% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 FocuSport win 2–3。
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned Sporting Cascades; match finished FocuSport
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
The full-time result was FocuSport win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sporting Cascades 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · FocuSport 33.4%
- xG · Sporting Cascades 1.34 — FocuSport 1.26
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sporting Cascades 2.35 · Draw 2.75 · FocuSport 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Sporting Cascades 38.3% · Draw 32.7% · FocuSport 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sporting Cascades 2.35 · Draw 2.75 · FocuSport 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Sporting Cascades 38.3% · Draw 32.7% · FocuSport 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FocuSport win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
布基纳法索甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitesse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | USFA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | FocuSport | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | ASFA-Yennenga | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Rahimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting Cascades | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Réal du Faso | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | ASFB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Comoé | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Douanes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Majestic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | RCK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | CFFEB | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Maya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Salitas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | SONABEL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitesse | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Rahimo | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Réal du Faso | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | USFA | 2 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 5 | FocuSport | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | ASFA-Yennenga | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | ASFB | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Salitas | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 9 | Douanes | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | RCK | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Majestic | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | SONABEL | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Sporting Cascades | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Comoé | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | CFFEB | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Maya | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
