The model missed the final outcome (费罗尼凯利 win 3–1).
The model had projected 武什特里亚 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 武什特里亚 费罗尼凯利 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 费罗尼凯利 | 31.5% | 45.0% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.3% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| 武什特里亚 | 39.0% | 27.7% | +11.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates 费罗尼凯利's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 13.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
全场结束后，赛果为 费罗尼凯利 win 3–1。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 费罗尼凯利 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 武什特里亚; match finished 费罗尼凯利
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 武什特里亚 by 13.5 percentage points (52.5% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 费罗尼凯利 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · 武什特里亚 39.0%
- xG · 费罗尼凯利 1.22 — 武什特里亚 1.38
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 费罗尼凯利 2.00 · Draw 3.30 · 武什特里亚 3.25
- Implied 1X2 · 费罗尼凯利 45.0% · Draw 27.3% · 武什特里亚 27.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · 费罗尼凯利 2.00 · Draw 3.30 · 武什特里亚 3.25
- Implied 1X2 · 费罗尼凯利 45.0% · Draw 27.3% · 武什特里亚 27.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 费罗尼凯利 win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
科索沃超级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 普里什蒂纳 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 马利舍瓦 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | 杜卡吉尼 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | 德里塔 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 吉拉尼 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | 巴尔卡尼 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | 斯肯德拉伊德雷尼察队 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | 费罗尼凯利 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | 拉皮 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | 武什特里亚 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马利舍瓦 | 7 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 16 |
| 2 | 普里什蒂纳 | 6 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 18 |
| 3 | 吉拉尼 | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 4 | 斯肯德拉伊德雷尼察队 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | 巴尔卡尼 | 7 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | 杜卡吉尼 | 7 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | 德里塔 | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | 拉皮 | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 3 |
| 9 | 费罗尼凯利 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | 武什特里亚 | 7 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 0 |
