The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected 越南女足 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 小 2.5 (0 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 否 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 越南女足 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 越南女足 | 36.1% | 43.2% | -7.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| 泰国女足 | 34.2% | 29.0% | +5.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 越南女足's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 0–0。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 越南女足. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 越南女足; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 越南女足 by 7.1 percentage points (43.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 越南女足 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 泰国女足 34.2%
- xG · 越南女足 1.32 — 泰国女足 1.28
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 越南女足 2.08 · Draw 3.24 · 泰国女足 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · 越南女足 43.2% · Draw 27.8% · 泰国女足 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 越南女足 2.08 · Draw 3.24 · 泰国女足 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · 越南女足 43.2% · Draw 27.8% · 泰国女足 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
亚运会女子赛事 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 日本女足 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | 中华台北女足 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | 越南女足 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 泰国女足 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 日本女足 | 3 | 20 | 0 | +20 | 9 |
| 2 | 中华台北女足 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | 越南女足 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 1 |
| 4 | 泰国女足 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 1 |
