The model missed the final outcome (纳瓦尔卡内罗 win 0–4).
The model had projected 萨贡蒂诺 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 萨贡蒂诺 纳瓦尔卡内罗 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 萨贡蒂诺 | 36.1% | 32.0% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.3% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| 纳瓦尔卡内罗 | 34.2% | 36.7% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 纳瓦尔卡内罗 win 0–4。
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 萨贡蒂诺; match finished 纳瓦尔卡内罗
市场启示
The full-time result was 纳瓦尔卡内罗 win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 萨贡蒂诺 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 纳瓦尔卡内罗 34.2%
- xG · 萨贡蒂诺 1.32 — 纳瓦尔卡内罗 1.28
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 萨贡蒂诺 2.78 · Draw 2.84 · 纳瓦尔卡内罗 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · 萨贡蒂诺 32.0% · Draw 31.3% · 纳瓦尔卡内罗 36.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 萨贡蒂诺 2.78 · Draw 2.84 · 纳瓦尔卡内罗 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · 萨贡蒂诺 32.0% · Draw 31.3% · 纳瓦尔卡内罗 36.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 纳瓦尔卡内罗 win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
西班牙. 西班牙联合会杯 预测
