AI correctly predicted the 磐田喜悦 win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (6 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 是 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 磐田喜悦 磐田喜悦 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 磐田喜悦 | 36.1% | 32.5% | +3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.2% | +4.4 pp | Aligned |
| 千叶市原 | 34.2% | 42.2% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 千叶市原's win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（磐田喜悦 win 4–2）。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 千叶市原. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 磐田喜悦 higher (44.1% vs model 36.1%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (磐田喜悦 win 4–2).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 磐田喜悦 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · 千叶市原 34.2%
- xG · 磐田喜悦 1.32 — 千叶市原 1.28
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 磐田喜悦 2.39 · Draw 3.44 · 千叶市原 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · 磐田喜悦 38.8% · Draw 27.0% · 千叶市原 34.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 磐田喜悦 2.87 · Draw 3.70 · 千叶市原 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · 磐田喜悦 32.5% · Draw 25.2% · 千叶市原 42.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 磐田喜悦 win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
日本. 日联杯 预测
