The model missed the final outcome (东方 win 3–1).
The model had projected 杰志 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (4 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 是 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 杰志 东方 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 东方 | 33.8% | 20.8% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| 杰志 | 36.6% | 49.2% | -12.6 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates 东方's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.8%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 东方 win 3–1。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 东方.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 杰志 by 13.0 percentage points (23.6% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 东方 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · 杰志 36.6%
- xG · 东方 1.27 — 杰志 1.33
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 07:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 东方 4.33 · Draw 3.00 · 杰志 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · 东方 20.8% · Draw 30.0% · 杰志 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 东方 4.33 · Draw 3.00 · 杰志 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · 东方 20.8% · Draw 30.0% · 杰志 49.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 东方 win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
香港. 香港联赛杯 预测
