The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 阿拉戈斯体育协会 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 阿拉戈斯体育协会 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 乌贝兰迪亚 | 31.5% | 43.5% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 32.5% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| 阿拉戈斯体育协会 | 39.0% | 24.0% | +14.9 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates 阿拉戈斯体育协会's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.0%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on 阿拉戈斯体育协会.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 阿拉戈斯体育协会; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 阿拉戈斯体育协会 by 14.9 percentage points (24.1% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 乌贝兰迪亚 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · 阿拉戈斯体育协会 39.0%
- xG · 乌贝兰迪亚 1.22 — 阿拉戈斯体育协会 1.38
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 乌贝兰迪亚 2.08 · Draw 2.79 · 阿拉戈斯体育协会 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · 乌贝兰迪亚 43.5% · Draw 32.5% · 阿拉戈斯体育协会 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 乌贝兰迪亚 2.08 · Draw 2.79 · 阿拉戈斯体育协会 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · 乌贝兰迪亚 43.5% · Draw 32.5% · 阿拉戈斯体育协会 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
巴西丁级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马瑙阿拉 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | 纳西奥纳尔AM | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | 圣雷蒙多 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | 蒙特罗赖马 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | 马瑙斯FC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | 加索俱乐部 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 纳西奥纳尔AM | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | 马瑙阿拉 | 10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | 蒙特罗赖马 | 10 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 4 | 圣雷蒙多 | 10 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | 马瑙斯FC | 10 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | 加索俱乐部 | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
