The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected 哈拉帕 at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (2 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 哈拉帕 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 哈拉帕 | 45.3% | 52.0% | -6.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 25.0% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| 兰乔圣塔纳 | 25.8% | 23.1% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates 哈拉帕's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 1–1。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 哈拉帕. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 哈拉帕; match finished Draw
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 哈拉帕 by 6.6 percentage points (51.9% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 哈拉帕 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · 兰乔圣塔纳 25.8%
- xG · 哈拉帕 1.51 — 兰乔圣塔纳 1.09
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 哈拉帕 1.73 · Draw 3.60 · 兰乔圣塔纳 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · 哈拉帕 52.0% · Draw 25.0% · 兰乔圣塔纳 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 哈拉帕 1.73 · Draw 3.60 · 兰乔圣塔纳 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · 哈拉帕 52.0% · Draw 25.0% · 兰乔圣塔纳 23.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
尼加拉瓜甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马那瓜 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 | 迪里安亨 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 | 皇家埃斯特利 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | 马那瓜国立自治大学 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | 圣马科斯 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H出口 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | 马塔加尔帕 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | 沃尔特费雷蒂 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | 哈拉帕 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | 兰乔圣塔纳 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 马那瓜 | 9 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 23 |
| 2 | 迪里安亨 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | 皇家埃斯特利 | 9 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | 沃尔特费雷蒂 | 10 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | 马那瓜国立自治大学 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | 圣马科斯 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | H&H出口 | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | 兰乔圣塔纳 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 9 | 哈拉帕 | 10 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | 马塔加尔帕 | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 9 |
