The model missed the final outcome (Draw 5–5).
The model had projected 佐法尔 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (10 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 佐法尔 平局 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-5 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 斯梅尔 | 34.2% | 20.3% | +13.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.2% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| 佐法尔 | 36.1% | 52.5% | -16.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates 佐法尔's win probability at 52.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 Draw 5–5。
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 佐法尔 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 10 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned 佐法尔; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 佐法尔 by 16.4 percentage points (52.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:19 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 斯梅尔 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · 佐法尔 36.1%
- xG · 斯梅尔 1.28 — 佐法尔 1.32
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 12:49 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 斯梅尔 4.33 · Draw 3.25 · 佐法尔 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · 斯梅尔 20.5% · Draw 27.3% · 佐法尔 52.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:19 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 斯梅尔 4.42 · Draw 3.30 · 佐法尔 1.71
- Implied 1X2 · 斯梅尔 20.3% · Draw 27.2% · 佐法尔 52.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:20 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 5–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
阿曼. 阿曼足总杯 预测
